Diwali 2026 Smartphone Sales Decline in India Explained: Volumes Fell 20% as Prices Rose — What Buyers Should Do

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Diwali 2026 smartphone sales decline India explained — mobile phone dealers in a Kochi shopping mall

Illustrative image: mobile phone dealers in a shopping mall in Kochi, India. Diwali 2026 sales were measured across offline retail stores like these. Image: Wikimedia Commons / Esme Vos, CC BY 2.0.

TL;DR: Indian shops sold 18–20% fewer smartphones this Diwali than last year, even though the total money spent stayed flat — because phones cost much more. The memory-chip shortage pushed prices up, buyers delayed upgrades, and budget phones were hit hardest.

Key Highlights

  • Offline smartphone volumes fell 18–20% year-on-year during the four Diwali days, from Dhanteras (6 November) to the day after Diwali (9 November), according to the All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA).
  • Sales value stayed flat — shops took in about the same money as last Diwali, because higher prices made up for fewer phones sold.
  • The week before Dhanteras was worse: volumes slumped nearly 40% as buyers waited for festive discounts that never fully arrived.
  • Realme was the worst hit, with volumes down more than 50% across regions; Apple and Motorola were the strongest performers.
  • Budget buyers suffered most: shipments of phones under ₹20,000 fell 47% in the July–September quarter, and the sub-₹15,000 segment lost more than half its sales.

Diwali 2026 smartphone sales decline in India — the numbers

Diwali is normally the biggest phone-selling week of the year in India. This time it was one of the weakest. AIMRA, which represents around 250,000 mobile retailers across the country, published its Diwali Retail Performance Report, reported on 10–11 November 2026, and the headline is blunt: shops sold roughly a fifth fewer phones than last Diwali, while the value of what they sold barely moved.

Counterpoint Research's own tracking backs the retailers up. It measured a 20% fall in mobile volume sales between 8 and 29 October, compared with last year's early Diwali season (22 September to 19 October). The final ten days to Diwali did see an uptick in eastern and central India, mainly for premium phones — but not enough to rescue the season. Counterpoint's research director Tarun Pathak noted the drop was sharper online than in shops, and that Tier-III and smaller cities saw the fastest sales growth.

MeasureDiwali 2026Source
Offline sales volumes, Diwali daysDown 18–20% year-on-yearAIMRA Diwali Retail Performance Report
Offline sales value, Diwali daysFlat vs last DiwaliAIMRA
Volumes, 7 days before DhanterasDown nearly 40%AIMRA
Volume sales, 8–29 OctoberDown 20% vs last year's festive windowCounterpoint Research
Shipments, July–September 2026Down 20% year-on-year, lowest in a decadeCounterpoint Research
Shipments under ₹20,000, July–SeptemberDown 47% year-on-yearCounterpoint Research
Shipments, July–September 2026 (second estimate)Down 26% to 35.8 million units, lowest Q3 since 2016Omdia

Two things are worth noting about these numbers. First, AIMRA measures offline retail — physical shops — while Counterpoint and Omdia track shipments into the whole market, including online. The two disagree on the exact size of the fall (20% versus 26% for the quarter), because they measure different things with different methods; the direction is the same. Second, "value flat, volumes down a fifth" is the whole story in one line: Indians bought fewer phones, but paid more for each one.

Why did sales fall? The memory-chip squeeze

The main cause is not Diwali itself — it is the global memory-chip shortage. AI data centres are buying up DRAM and NAND memory at prices phone makers cannot match, so the memory inside every phone now costs far more. Jefferies estimates the per-device memory cost has already risen to $60–65, about three times the roughly $20 it cost in 2025. Counterpoint puts the result plainly: average smartphone prices in India rose about 16% in the first half of 2026, and by about 32% for phones under ₹10,000. Retail prices of phones already on sale are up about 21% on average.

That price rise did two things at once. It pushed many models into higher price bands — a phone that was ₹18,000 last year is ₹22,000 this year — and it made buyers wait. AIMRA says most shoppers simply decided to push their purchases forward, hoping for a better deal that did not come. Footfall in mainline markets stayed strong during the four Diwali days, but far fewer visitors actually bought. In the sub-₹15,000 segment, AIMRA reports, consumers increasingly walked away without buying, or shifted to pre-owned and refurbished phones instead.

The timing made it worse. The week before Dhanteras, volumes collapsed nearly 40% because shoppers were waiting for festive offers. When the offers arrived, they were thinner than in past years: brands had protected their margins, kept inventories lean, and offered smaller discounts on a higher base price. The late premium surge in the last ten days — older iPhones at pre-hike prices, for example — softened the blow but could not undo the pre-Diwali slump.

Diwali 2026 smartphone sales decline India explained — a mobile phone kiosk in Colaba, Mumbai

Illustrative image: a mobile phone kiosk in Colaba, Mumbai. Small retailers were hit hardest this Diwali, as buyers delayed upgrades or turned to refurbished phones. Image: Wikimedia Commons / Victor Grigas, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Which brands won and which lost?

The pain was not shared evenly. Premium brands with older stock at old prices did well; brands dependent on budget volumes did not. Here is how AIMRA's report breaks it down.

BrandDiwali 2026 performanceWhy
AppleStrongOlder iPhone 15, 16 and 17 models sold well wherever shops had stock at pre-hike prices; iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max also saw healthy traction
MotorolaStrongSteady demand across its range, per AIMRA
Google PixelFast-growing in premiumEmerging as a premium contender, per AIMRA
XiaomiSteady growthCompetitive pricing of the Redmi Note 17 series
VivoStrong demandV80 series, S2 FE, Y11 5G and Y21 5G sold well; limited sub-₹20,000 5G availability weighed on volumes
OppoSold wellReno 16, Reno 16c, F35 series and A6x; absence of newer sub-₹20,000 5G models constrained sales
SamsungStruggled offlineBig online–offline price gaps on the Galaxy S25, S25 Ultra and Fold 8; discounted online stock was resold through physical shops via aggregators
RealmeWorst hit — volumes down over 50%Relatively high prices vs Xiaomi, Samsung and Vivo; few new launches; weak offers; poor acceptance above ₹40,000

Most transactions landed in the ₹30,000–60,000 band after discounts, followed by the premium segment — a sign that the buyers who did spend, spent more. Samsung's offline problem deserves a line of its own: AIMRA says mainline retailers openly acknowledged buying heavily discounted Samsung phones meant for e-commerce channels from aggregators, with GST invoices, and reselling them in physical stores — nearly 95% of the online-exclusive Galaxy M07 stock, priced around ₹11,500, reportedly ended up on shop counters. The association has urged manufacturers to end online-exclusive deals that undercut their own offline partners.

Why it matters for India readers

This is not just a bad week for shops — it is the clearest sign yet that the cheapest part of India's phone market is shrinking. Phones under ₹15,000 saw their share of shipments fall from 41% a year ago to 18%, and their sales fell 65%, according to Counterpoint figures reported before Diwali. The buyers who used to upgrade every two years on a ₹12,000–15,000 budget are now the ones most likely to wait, buy refurbished, or simply keep their old phone longer.

Financing is papering over part of the gap. Counterpoint's Tarun Pathak puts financing at around 46% of phone sales overall, while AIMRA puts it at around 60% of offline transactions — different slices of the market, same direction: more Indians are buying phones on EMI because paying upfront has become harder. That keeps volumes ticking over, but it also means households are taking on debt for a device that used to be a cash purchase.

The outlook is not bright for the next few months. AIMRA expects volumes at mainline brick-and-mortar stores to contract by as much as 50% over the next three months, and manufacturers have signalled price increases of up to 15%. Counterpoint expects the market to shrink around 13% across 2026, with Q4 volumes down about 12% year-on-year, and its research director warns of another round of price hikes after the festive season. Omdia goes further, projecting full-year shipments of about 132 million phones against 153 million last year, and another low-single-digit decline in 2027. On the brighter side, Indian brands gained share — from 2% to 7% — with Lava and Ai+ accounting for nearly 95% of that, helped by the same price rises that hurt the big brands' budget lines.

Should you buy now or wait?

✅ Verdict: buy if you need a phone now — but buy on the price, not the discount banner. Do not wait for a broad price crash after Diwali: analysts do not expect memory prices to normalise before 2027, and some put relief as far away as early 2028. If the phone you want is genuinely below its launch price, or below the brand's own store price, take it. Only wait if you are chasing a specific flagship already dated for late November, where a launch can push the older model down.

The logic is simple. Festive discounts this year were taken off prices that had already risen — a "20% off" tag on a phone that cost 20% more than last year is not a deal. Compare the price on offer with the phone's launch price and with what it sold for a month ago, not with its MRP. Older flagships at deep discounts are the best value in this market, provided the model still has a few years of software updates left — the same logic that made older iPhones the best sellers this Diwali. Budget buyers under ₹15,000 have the least reason to wait: that segment saw the biggest price rises and the thinnest discounts, and nothing in the forecasts suggests it gets cheaper soon. If your current phone still works, the cheapest option of all is to keep it for a few more months and buy when you actually need to — the market is rewarding patience only for buyers who can wait for a specific launch, not for a general price fall.

FAQs

Why did smartphone sales fall during Diwali 2026?
Sales fell mainly because phones became much more expensive. A global memory-chip shortage — driven by AI data centres buying up DRAM and NAND — pushed average Indian smartphone prices up about 16% in the first half of 2026. Buyers delayed upgrades, waited for festive discounts that were thinner than usual, and the week before Dhanteras saw volumes slump nearly 40%.

Will smartphone prices fall after Diwali 2026?
Probably not by much, and not across the board. Counterpoint analysts do not expect memory prices to normalise before 2027, and manufacturers have signalled further price increases of up to 15%. A few specific models may get cheaper when new flagships launch in late November, but a general post-Diwali price crash is unlikely.

Should I buy a phone now or wait after Diwali 2026?
Buy now if you need a phone and the price is genuinely below its launch price or the brand's own store price — especially in the budget segment, where prices have risen most. Wait only if you want a specific upcoming flagship, such as the Vivo X500 series launching in India on 26 November, where the launch may push older models down.

Which smartphone brands sold well during Diwali 2026?
Apple and Motorola performed strongest, according to AIMRA, with older iPhones at pre-hike prices selling particularly well. Google Pixel grew fast in the premium segment, Xiaomi grew steadily on the Redmi Note 17 series, and Vivo and Oppo also sold well. Realme was the worst hit, with volumes down more than 50%, and Samsung struggled in offline stores.

Takeaway

Diwali 2026 was the festival when India's phone market stopped pretending prices would come back down. Shops sold a fifth fewer phones, took in the same money, and the cheapest buyers were the ones who stayed away. Until memory prices ease — not expected before 2027 — the smart move is to buy on the real price, not the discount banner, and only when you actually need a new phone.

For the full background on why phones cost more this year, read our explainer on why smartphone prices are rising in India in 2026, and check the OnePlus 15 price hike in India and the Vivo V80 price in India to see how the same memory-driven rises are hitting individual flagships.

Sources

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